Forecasting can be difficult. No matter how much data and analyses you run, the unexpected can always happen.
Take the case of Leicester City, who were crowned Premier League Champions of England this week. All the data, information, and expert opinion would never have led you to make such a conclusion, and it’s almost impossible to put into words how amazingly improbable the club’s achievement is.
But to help give some context, here are 11 events that bookies considered more likely to happen than Leicester City winning the Premier League:
2. X-Factor PM
3. Peace Kanye!
4. Tanking Pays Off
5. Hello Nessie
6. Bono The First
7. President Kardashian
8. The King!
9. FC Who?
10. Saturday Afternoon With Piers Morgan
11. From Parliament To Villa Park
12. Leicester City, Champions of England
So the bookies thought that Bono was five times more likely to become Pope of the Catholic Church, that Kim Kardashian was over twice as likely to become POTUS, and that the Philadelphia 76ers* were ten times more likely to win the NBA Finals than Leicester City would win the Premier League.
Yes, forecasting can be difficult.
Congratulations to Leicester City Football Club.
*For the record, the 76ers finished this season with 10 wins and 72 losses, the second-worst record in the history of the NBA during an 82 game season.